The president of VSUES Gennady Lazarev: The situation with coronavirus is the biggest shock for our country

The President of  VSUES, the deputy of the Legislative Assembly of the Primorsky Krai, Doctor of Economics, Professor Gennady Lazarev told the correspondent of PrimaMedia news how to live and how to be saved in the time of the «corona». 

The people are already confused in terms, reflecting on what is happening now: quarantine, self-isolation, a regime of increased danger or an undeclared emergency? One thing is clear – it will be hard times for us, perhaps worse than in the 90s. In this interview, Gennady Lazarev, a deputy of the Legislative Assembly of the Krai, president of VSUES, presented his vision of the situation. A man who knows how the life was difficult in the period of the 90s, when everything collapsed, he started to build a modern university in Vladivostok and the first student campus in the Far East - practically from scratch and practically without support from above. And he built it: both a university and a campus. It seems then that it was the only construction for all Russian higher education.

- Gennady Innokentyevich, should each generation really have its own war or its 90s? This terrible coronavirus not only destroys people, but also destroys our whole life.

- Now it’s other time, and today's Russia is not at all Russia of the 90s. We have a more or less working economy, there is money, there is no crazy inflation, unemployment. But, together with other problems that our country has encountered - falling oil prices, rising dollar rates, frozen GDP indicators, the nervous, difficult situation with coronavirus, I see as the biggest shock for our country since the Second World War.

To survive and win, it is necessary not only to put a reliable barrier to the spread of the virus, but also to support the economy, business and, most importantly, protect people. In Russia, and here in Primorye, even before the onset of the virus, people lived in difficult conditions, from salary to salary. Up to 70 percent of the population does not have capital formations that would last a month or two. Most people saved due to stable work and stable incomes.

The regime of self-isolation is, of course, the right decision in terms of the medical. But what will people live on? In voluntary imprisonment every day you need to eat, drink, be treated, teach children. It is said that a business must pay for forced vacations. But where will the business get this money ?! In my opinion, the suspension of enterprises, with the mandatory preservation of staff salaries, in relation to small and medium-sized businesses, the measure is not only ineffective, moreover, it is destructive. To lose income, but at the same time pay salaries, taxes, loans, rent in full during the month is a direct way to stagnate the business.

I don’t know in Primorye a single enterprise that today had a reserve of financial strength, which would be enough to pay off all these obligations.

We have now decided to minimize regional and local taxes in a number of areas, including in the tourism industry, for transport companies, catering services. Of course, this is not enough, but unfortunately, this is not much that we can allow at the regional level. In my understanding, in order to maintain the viability of these and many other enterprises, it is necessary to use the accumulations of our state reserve funds, which, in fact, are formed precisely for these purposes, serve as a small saving for a rainy day. The National Welfare Fund has a good margin of safety in order to support both the economy and the population in the event of force majeure.

I think that we are now in the stage of force majeure. It's time to print the nest egg. If this is not done now, then after one and a half to two non-working months, not only individual enterprises, but the entire economy will go into a non-working state.

-Do you think the quarantine will still be extended?

- At a minimum, enterprises will not work until mid-May. Even if the coronavirus in the near future will decline, then the beginning of May we have holidays. So, there is every reason to believe that the first 10-15 days of the month self-isolation will continue. Judging by the experience of other countries, quarantine is delayed for at least two to three months. Even in the most favorable situation, the Russian economy is unlikely to recover this year. It will take years to revive.

- In this situation, does something make you optimistic?

- In the most critical moments, there is one very important circumstance that allows us not to deny ourselves healthy optimism. Yes, in such periods it becomes more difficult to live, but it is precisely this that most often makes people mobilize their internal forces, make extraordinary, fundamentally different, unexpected decisions, and find a way out of difficult, seemingly hopeless situations. I more than once faced with this in the 90s. Then it was even more difficult - it was not necessary to expect someone's support.

Today we have a real, financially supported opportunity to support people and business not only at the municipal and regional level, but also at the federal level. The Russian government should take maximum participation in this work, promptly providing effective assistance, as other countries do. For example, Germany allocates 50 billion euros to self-employed, small enterprises - subsidies up to 15 thousand euros 1.3 million rubles), medium - up to 50 thousand euros. The UK gives grants to small businesses in the amount of up to 10 thousand euros. Among the measures of state support are the delay of credit on mortgage, payment of communal services and electricity, and compensation for most of the salary for those left without work.

- We have money. The National Welfare Fund alone has more than 12 trillion rubles, that is more than $ 165 billion. And there are also many mega-projects - in the defense industry, space, which are worth suspending. Somehow not before flying to the moon, when everything collapses on Earth.

- The reserves are sufficient to start acting today. The federal government should begin by developing a set of measures that will allow the economy and people to survive. If we use the current medical terminology in relation to the economic situation, then here, as in the fight against coronavirus, the first thing you need to do is diagnose and understand the depth of the problem. We need to calculate how much money is needed for an effective, working program of priority measures to support business and the public. The Americans went this way, having reserved more than $ 2 trillion to stimulate the economy.

By the way, in America they have already begun mass screening for immunity to coronavirus. They say that soon such test systems will appear in Russia. This means that people who have developed immunity against the virus will be able to return to the economy, to ordinary life.

I think that in addition to mass testing for the presence of the virus and antibodies to it, you need to thoroughly study the situation in enterprises that continue to work. I have not met statistics, whether the incidence there is growing or not. It seems that there is no total incidence, otherwise our hospitals would already be crowded.

- How is your university experiencing a regime of self-isolation?

- VSUES, like other educational organizations, switched to a remote work. Actually, we have been promoting educational digital technologies for a long time, but for the first time we are trying to run them around in droves. Of course there are problems. But the truth is that in higher education and the Russian education system as a whole there are very few organizations that are technologically, infrastructurally ready to work in today's quarantine.

VSUES is set to ensure that under the conditions of this test, seriously, for a long time and, most importantly, effectively switch to the most advanced technologies, so that over time they will be in demand at different levels of education and life of the university.

- How do you save from the virus?

- I do the same as other rational people. I try not to neglect security measures, to be careful, to be less in crowded places, to monitor my health, and to protect myself from colds.

- You have no despair that everything is destroying; literally an apocalypse is waiting for us?

-What despair can there be when there is a goal?! And this goal now, as a victory, is one for all - to withstand, to go through the current difficult period with minimal losses. Here a lot depends on the state. I am absolutely convinced that the government is obliged not only to financially support people and business, but finally to seriously engage in the economy and development of production. Enough confrontation with the powers that be. It’s time to think about why other countries can increase their GDP to 4-7 percent per year, and for many years we have almost zero indicators. Or ask yourself why countries, which, like Russia, have a lot of hydrocarbons, but at the same time not only build their economy and their future on this resource.

In May we celebrate the 75th anniversary of the end of the war. This is a holy date for us. There is no family in Russia that the war would not have burned. We are all proud of our fathers and grandfathers who gave us a peaceful life .. We are all proud of our great Victory. It’s right, it’s patriotic, it’s human. But it seems to me not right, as today, after 75 years, the victorious people live. I really love our country. I’ve been living in Primorye all my life and I love everything here - nature, air, sea, people. I, like all of us, have a natural sense of pride in the country. I would also like to be proud of the quality of life in Russia - from the capital to the provinces.

I really hope that the state takes every opportunity to adequately get out of the current non-standard and extremely difficult situation, that solutions will be found that will cope with the crisis, will give new incentives to the economy.